Rising debt represents a threat to China’s growth in the medium term, the International Mining and Resources Conference (IMARC) in Melbourne was told this week. The debt may soon reach around 300% of GDP, which will reduce China’s capacity to borrow if stimulus is needed to maintain future GDP growth, said China Hangking Holdings’ CEO president and CEO Greg Pan.
He forecast that China would continue to follow expansionary policies for at least the next few years in order to meet the promised target of doubling its 2010 GDP by 2020.
Notwithstanding this risk, the IMF remained sanguine about the immediate future, he said.
The IMF predicted average growth of 6.4% a year through to 2021, he said. Growth last year was 6.0%, though estimates put the current level at near 6.8%, in part due to Government macro-economic reforms.
Greg Pan told delegates that mining stocks were at last recovering after five years of a bear market. However, iron ore remained in oversupply with quality becoming a critical factor for suppliers. He suggested iron ore prices in the order of US$60-$70 a tonne for the year ahead.
IMARC is Australia’s largest mining conference. It is the fourth cornerstone in global mining conferences covering the Asia Pacific region.
Australia’s resources industry is a key driver of the economy and IMARC brings together global leaders, executives, investors and national mining ministers from the international resource sector.
IMARC 2017 is welcoming over 3500 delegates from 77 countries as well as over 30 international ministers and government representatives. More than 150 mining companies are also attending.