According to Metals Economics Group’s 19th annual edition of Corporate Exploration Strategies (CES), commercially-oriented explorers planned to spend $13.2 billion on nonferrous exploration in 2008
Worldwide nonferrous exploration budgets steadily increased through the early 1990s to crest at $5.2 billion in 1997, before falling for five straight years to a 12-year low of $1.9 billion in 2002. Since 2002, our estimated total, excluding uranium, rose for six straight years to reach the highest total since the CES series began in 1989.
In Metals Economics Group’s 2008 analysis, planned nonferrous exploration budgets of the 1912 companies included in the CES reached $12.6 billion for the year.
We estimate that the company budgets included in the 2008 study, using a $100,000 cut-off, account for more than 95% of worldwide commercially-oriented nonferrous expenditures.
Including the remaining 5%, planned expenditures for 2008 reached $13.2 billion, a 26% increase over 2007’s estimated total and 2.5 times the estimated $5.2 billion at the height of the last exploration cycle in 1997.
In addition, the CES began including uranium budgets in 2007.
MEG’s 2008 analysis includes aggregate uranium budgets totalling $1.15 billion. Including uranium budgets, the total number of companies covered rises to 2085, and the aggregate exploration budget, including the $12.6 billion nonferrous total, increases to more than $13.75 billion.Including estimates for budgets MEG could not obtain, worldwide planned exploration expenditures including uranium allocations total more than $14.4 billion.
While the industry’s aggregate planned exploration budget reached an all-time high in 2008, companies seldom spend exactly the amount budgeted on exploration in a given year, tending to spend more than budgeted during the good times and less during the bad.
The chaos in the financial economy and precipitous drop in commodity prices will certainly suppress the actual aggregate amount spent on exploration in 2008 relative to the total amount budgeted, but the overall decrease will likely be tempered by the fact that many companies had spent the bulk of their 2008 budget in the summer field season, before the industry meltdown.
Although cuts to residual exploration plans in the fourth quarter of 2008 were likely quite severe for many companies, particularly the junior explorers, MEG still expects the total amount actually spent on nonferrous exploration during the year to have reached an all-time high, although it will be lower than the planned budget figures discussed above.
While the absolute amount spent on exploration in a particular country, on a given target, or on projects at a certain stage of development is bound to be lower than the planned aggregate expenditures originally reported in MEG’s analysis, the relative proportion spent on each location, target, and stage will likely not differ significantly from what was budgeted by the industry.
As a result, we believe the relative percentages discussed here will stand, regardless of the actual total amount spent in 2008, providing an overview of the overall exploration trends.Â
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